What do the next ten years hold for creativity, innovation and intellectual production in the Middle East? Among the presentations to the Arab Thought Foundation’s ninth annual conference, FIKR9, were broadly two competing narratives for how the region should evolve.

Enthusiasm for the future: The young participants of FIKR9 Youth Program with HRH Prince Khalid Al Faisal in Beirut. Picture Courtesy of Hibr on Flickr, Licensed CC Attribution Share-Alike NonCommercial 3.0.

The dominant narrative suggests that the region can harness its ‘youth bulge’ to create a knowledge economy. This can happen from within the existing political structures, and will fuse Gulf oil wealth and investment expertise with the ever growing pool of human talent from across the region.

This narrative likes to focus on STEM subjects (Science, Technology, Engineering and Medicine). Educational achievement in these areas can create hi-tech industries and cutting edge research centres that will underpin innovation in areas such as renewable energy, petrochemicals, and nanotechnology.

You can see the mechanics of this strategy already taking root. Gulf money is being invested to build truly world-class research infrastructure, such as laboratories and libraries. Qatar’s Education City or the King Abdullah City for Science and Technology are two good examples. Foreign talent from outside the Arab world is being hired at a premium to train local talent, stimulate new research and foster a productive learning environment.

It is a strategy that gels well with the existing political institutions of the region, as the conference made clear. In his introductory notes, Arab Thought Foundation President HRH Prince Khalid Al Faisal, member of the Saudi royal family and governor of Makkah Province, said that the Arab world needed to lead global society toward a ‘sustainable future’ by ‘accelerating development in Science and Technology’.

With their immense resources and access to human capital from the wider Arab world and Asia, the Gulf states can build hi-tech industries and the talent pool needed to power them – a strategy that would replace oil and gas, and bring many wider infrastructure and economic benefits to society – without needing to change the way in which society works in any fundamental way.

That’s where the second narrative comes in, most prominently displayed here by Professor Burhan Ghalioun, Director of the Center for Contemporary Oriental Studies at the Sorbonne. The fact that he works from France is testament to the fact that his views are unpalatable in the Arab world. No one said it, but these views are also incompatible with the ‘knowledge economy’ thesis.

This narrative says that the notion of a knowledge economy is impossible without a fundamental change in the way in which Arab elites view critical thinking. For Ghalioun, critical thinking is inseparable from the notion of a knowledge economy. But for critical thinking to take root depends on elites relinquishing power. So the nub of it is that building a knowledge economy depends on building democracy.

Ghalioun’s thesis is not new – it notably draws on the ideas of Hisham Sharabi’s Neopatriarchy which was written in the 1980s – but it is still deeply challenging to hear the case being made so passionately at an elite Arab forum from within the Arab world. It is an ironic inversion of the very title of the event – Arab Thought Foundation. Ghalioun is saying, “Arab thought” is a contradiction in terms, and you the elites are the reason why this is so. He also poured scorn on the title of the event (Shaping the Future .. Arab’s role?), suggesting that the Arab world has no positive future to look forward to. But one thing is for sure, no non-Arab could make this case so boldly without being labeled an out-of-touch Orientalist. We certainly have to respect the Arab Thought Foundation for inviting him. It is not easy to welcome someone to a conference when you know his purpose for being there is to question the very forum you have established.

No other presentation elicited so much feedback from the audience, both positive and negative, so clearly Ghalioun’s words had hit a chord. Moreover, he spoke in high classical Arabic with a rhetorical eloquence that resonated with the audience, a further irony in a presentation that on face value to a western outsider might look like an unhelpful polemic rant. Let me quote from my notes:

In the Arab world we have a multifaceted crisis. No one is interested in the future, young people don’t have a future. All our policies are built on ignoring the future. Private interests trump public ones. We need many more jobs than we are creating. We have focused on closed nationalisms. We count on foreign protection for security. We are paying the price for nationalism rather than supporting each other. We need cooperation. We have feudal systems, we have princes. No one is asking the people. We have closed political regimes where political interests are linked to financial interests. We have great potential. But instead of asking people to think and criticize we have a system of tutorship. We have packaged people like sardines. This is why the Arab world has no more value than Hungary. The people are marginalized. A very small minority has control. We have deprived ninety percent from human resources. A small group has monopolized power. We need the blood of the Arab body to circulate, not just flow to one limb. Otherwise it will die.

Clearly, Ghalioun’s suggestion that Arab countries do not think about the future of their societies is wrong. Arab countries from Syria to Saudi Arabia think the future of the region is a knowledge economy, built from within the existing political structures. Much as China has built a powerful export economy from within the structures of the existing Communist regime, so the countries of the Middle East believe they must work from where they are, not a fantasy democracy land. The alternative to the current regimes they believe is the sectarian bloodshed of Iraq or the erratic theocracy of Iran.

But the ‘knowledge economy’ thesis is also fraught with challenges. As Parag Khanna argued, the countries of the region have high barriers to mobility which limit trade and the free flow of talent. Daniel Warner, former the chief of human resources at Apple, argued cogently for greater mindshare and investment in entrepreneurship in the region as a strategy for building human capital. Jordanian social entrepreneur Maher Kaddoura asked how the region would make more intellectual production available to wider Arab publics online in light of the fact that many do not speak English. Privately friends noted that the unwillingness of some countries to grant citizenship impedes the long term development of scientific communities needed to build the knowledge economy. There were also calls at the conference for improved legal frameworks and training that could underpin a successful rejuvenation of trade and business growth in the region.

One thing we can be sure of though is that in any plan for building human capital and knowledge industries, critical thinking matters. This is as true for scientists as much as for researchers in the humanities. We may just find that the highly skilled science community the region seeks to build is the vanguard for other kinds of change we can scarcely begin to predict.

Sunset Dubai?

Dubai and Abu Dhabi saw their main stock markets fall sharply this week as they opened for the first time since a state-owned company in Dubai asked for extra time to repay its debt.

For many in the Middle East, the specter of Dubai’s towering promise tumbling down is a deep affront to regional pride.

“Oh Proud Emirates, with your golden sands and high sky,” said a reader on Emirat Al-Youm, “your men, women, children, elderly and wise people will not bow down or be humiliated. It will remain the country of good, a generous land for all. We, as Arab diaspora, stand in one row as loyal soldiers to this country, the truth will unfold and those who are unfair to you will know that the Emirates will remain the country of pride and generosity.”

‘شامخة يا امارات برمالك الذهبية وسماءك العاليه, برجالك , بنساءك , باطفالك بشيوخك وحكامك , لا تنحني ولا تذل , باذن الله , وستظل بلد الخير , وارض العطاء للجميع , ونحن كمغتربين عرب نقف صفا متراصا واحدا , لنكون الجند الاوفياء لهذا البلد , وسوف تنجلي الحقيقة وسوف يعرف المغرضين ان الامارات ستبقى بلد الشموخ والعطاء

Another Emirat Al-Youm reader said: “The whole world nowadays is going through difficult financial crises. However, many of those who once benefited from the Emirate of Dubai in its heyday are now turning their backs on it.

“God Willing, Dubai will be back on its feet. This is an opportunity to reconsider the situation and to prepare for stronger foundations next time.

“The whole world should benefit from the mistakes that led it to this abyss. Thank God for everything.

“This world is fleeting and a money crisis is much better than an ethical or a moral crisis.”

العالم جميعا يمر هذه الفترة بأزمات مالية ضخمة ولكن للأسف الكثير ممن استفادوا من إمارة دبي في عز أوجها يتنكرون الآن لكل شيء، دبي ستعود بإذن الله وهذه فرصة لإعادة ترتيب الأوضاع لانطلاقة مستقبلية أقوى والعالم أجمع عليه أن يستفيد من الأخطاء التي أوقعته في هاوية هذه الأزمة. الحمد لله على كل شيء وفي النهاية الدنيا فانية وأزمة في المال افضل من أزمة في الضمير والأخلاق

Attesting trust in God and suspicion of the role of western media was a consistent refrain for Emirat Al-Youm readers:

“Everybody knows that Dubai and the UAE in general are able to get past this crisis. It’s just that the media (especially the Western media) is so envious that it wants to make a mountain out of a mole hill. This crisis, too, shall pass. Just keep your hope in God alive.”

الكل عارف ان دبي او الامارات بشكل عام قادره انها تتخطى الازمه انشاء الله بس وسائل الاعلام وخاصه الغربيه من الغيره والحسد تحاول تلعب وتخرب وتتكلم بأي شيء بس ازمه وتعدي انشاء الله خلو الامل بالله كبير

Readers of the Qatari based AlJazeera.net felt much the same sense of hurt pride. But here there was a stronger anger towards foreign interests:

“Dubai was, is and always will be the best, cleanest and most developed city in the Middle East. God is capable of salvaging it from this crisis. And to those who are green with envy towards all beautiful things: it’s time for you to shut up.”

دبي كانت ولازالت و ستبقي افضل و انظف و ارقي مدينة في الشرق الاوسط. والله قادر أن يخرجها من ازمتها. و الاخوة الحاقدون علي كل شئ جميل آن الاوان أن يصموتوا

Also in Al-Hayat, Daoud Al-Shariyan called for greater transparency in Dubai to calm nerves and reassure investors.

He said: “His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, UAE vice president, UAE Prime Minister and ruler of Dubai, should have expected this media coverage of his country when he spoke in front of the second conference of investment companies and international investors in Dubai, being careful to clarify two points which Dubai has suffered from since the beginning of the global economic crisis.

“The first is that Dubai is not alone, and its success is an extension of the success of Abu Dhabi.

“The second: the recognition that silence has created an information vacuum that has allowed rumors to spread; he called for this to be avoided in the future.”

كأنَّ الشيخ محمد بن راشد، نائب رئيس دولة الإمارات رئيس مجلس الوزراء حاكم دبي، كان يتوقع السلوك الإعلامي تجاه بلاده وهو يتحدث أمام المؤتمر الثاني للشركات الاستثمارية والمستثمرين العالميين في دبي، فحرص على توضيح نقطتين عانت منهما دبي مع بداية الأزمة الاقتصادية العالمية. الأولى: أن دبي ليست وحدها، ونجاحها هو امتداد لنجاح أبو ظبي. والثانية: الاعتراف بأن الصمت خلق فراغاً معلوماتياً وسمح للشائعات بالرواج، داعياً إلى عدم تكرار ذلك في المستقبل

The question of transparency was raised by bloggers within UAE too. An Emirati’s Thoughts said:

“What we need is action by our Minister of Economy, Lubna Al Qasimi. Lubna, instead of recieving dignitatries, why not take a step forward and set up an independent division in the ministry of economy, something along the lines of the “Department of Economic Transparency and Statistics” ? Something that will pool together all information drawn from all the emirates and release it so that investors can assess how bad the situation really is and we can start to address the situation more properly.”